Risk is a critical dimension in complex project management that significantly influences project outcomes and decision‐making processes. While risk and uncertainty are closely related concepts, it is important to distinguish between them. A risk has both a probability of occurrence and a degree of impact should it materialize. In contrast, uncertainty refers to an absence of knowledge or information about potential future events or outcomes (Levin and Ward 2011).
The risk dimension in project complexity relates explicitly to the extent of unknown risks present in a project and their potential impacts on the management process and final product delivery. These unknowns can be categorized as “known‐unknowns” (risks that are identified but whose impacts are uncertain) and “unknown‐unknowns” (risks that have not yet been identified or anticipated) (Kerzner and Belack 2010). Risk management in projects involves implementing processes aimed at reducing the impact and/or probability of negative risks (threats) while maximizing the impact and/or probability of positive risks (opportunities) (Shenhar and Dvir 2007).
The effectiveness of risk management can significantly influence a project's complexity level. The risk dimension can be categorized into four levels of increasing complexity:
Well‐known risks ...
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