April 2016
Intermediate to advanced
284 pages
9h 26m
English
book
Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management
by Dale Lehman, Huybert Groenendaal, Greg Nolder
Content preview from Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management
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28 Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management
These four steps can be described in layman’s terms: A Monte Carlo model
is simulating not just the base case scenarios, but also any possible scenario
through the use of probability distributions instead of xed values. Monte
Carlo then simulates the model thousands of times in order to get an under-
standing of the uncertainty around the possible outcomes.
Computer software is generally used to perform Monte Carlo simulation,
but the idea can easily be imagined using paper, pencil, and a coin. Imagine
that we are interested in estimating the probability of throwing two tails in
a row in ...
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