April 2016
Intermediate to advanced
284 pages
9h 26m
English
book
Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management
by Dale Lehman, Huybert Groenendaal, Greg Nolder
Content preview from Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management
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Selecting Distributions 121
• Approach 1. Using p = 1/50 = 2% and thus ignoring the uncertainty
we have regarding the results of the rst study
• Approach 2. Using the Beta distribution to represent the uncertainty
around p
Figure4.24 shows how to construct both alternative models (with two ver-
sions of the second method: the construction approach, Approach 2, and the
simpler Beta distribution, Approach 3) to simulate the number of side effects
in the second study.
Approach 1 simply uses the Binomial distribution and assumes that the
observed side effect rate (.02) from the small study is the actual side effect
rate, known with certainty. A ...
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