
206 Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management
CHAPTER 6
Exercises
6.1 FLU SEASON
Exercise6-1.xlsx contains data on the number of u cases in the United
States from September 28, 2003, through the end of December 2010.
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Assume that the u season starts in the last week of September each year.
a. How would you characterize the 2010–2011 u season (as of the
end of December)—is it above or below average? Does your answer
vary for different weeks during the season?
b. Estimate the probability that the total 2010–2011 season will expe-
rience more u cases than did the 2009–2010 season.
c. Estimate the probability that a week during the ...