April 2016
Intermediate to advanced
284 pages
9h 26m
English
book
Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management
by Dale Lehman, Huybert Groenendaal, Greg Nolder
Content preview from Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management
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186 Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management
6.20, which show the trend charts
*
for the 100 forecast day prices using the
GARCH and MA2 models, respectively.
The moving average model predicts prices in the range of $20–$43, while
the GARCH model exhibits a much narrower range ($25–$35). The reason
that the GARCH model produces a smaller range of forecast prices is because
it picks up the fact that the recent volatility in the stock price has been rela-
tively low. The GARCH model is designed to model changes in volatility over
time, and if you think this is an accurate reection of the stock price behav-
ior, it would be a good foreca ...
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