48 Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management
CHAPTER 2
Exercises
These exercises are a continuation of those from Chapter 1 (in the same
order). Starting with your base case model, you are to incorporate the
uncertainty described in each exercise and conduct an appropriate
Monte Carlo simulation.
2.1 HEALTH INSURANCE CHOICE SIMULATION
Use your health care insurance plan choice model from Exercise 1.1.
Health care service utilization varies across individuals for myriad rea-
sons. While the average health care costs (subject to the copayment per-
centage) are $7,000 per year, assume that the actual costs per person have
a mean of $7,000, but follow a lognormal distribution with a standard
deviation of 10,000. Average