
171
6
Time Series Models
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
• Appreciate the difference between modeling distributions versus
time series.
• Understand time series forecasting as a data-driven process that is
contingent on having a stable underlying pattern in the data.
• Recognize and capture trends, seasonality, and volatility in histori-
cal data.
• Learn how to t time series models to data.
• Learn how to capture the uncertainty in a time series.
• Learn how to simulate time series data for future predictions.
• See how to use and incorporate judgment into time series models.
• Learn how to model several interrelated time series.
6.1 Introductory ...