
86 Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management
3.3 AUTOMOBILE INSURANCE: MORAL
HAZARD AND ADVERSE SELECTION
Data from an automobile insurance company show that claims fre-
quency and size are affected by what type of insurance is chosen by an
individual.
*
The data are from an Israeli insurer for the years 1994–1999.
Table 3.1 provides relevant data. Model the claims frequency using a
Poisson distribution (to allow for more than one claim per policy holder)
and use a Lognormal distribution for the size of claims (with the mean
given in Table3.1 and standard deviation equal to the mean). Assume
that 1,000 drivers are insured by ...