Book descriptionThis new edition gives project managers practical methods and tools to make the right decisions while juggling multiple objectives, risks and uncertainties, and stakeholders.
Project management requires you to navigate a maze of multiple and complex decisions that are an everyday part of the job. To be effective, you must know how to make rational choices with your projects, what processes can help to improve these choices, and what tools are available to help you with decision-making.
An entertaining and easy-to-read guide to a structured project decision-making process, Project Decisions will help you identify risks and perform basic quantitative and qualitative risk and decision analyses. Lev Virine and Michael Trumper use their understanding of basic human psychology to show you how to use event chain methodology, establish creative business environments, and estimate project time and costs. Each phase of the process is described in detail, including a review of both its psychological aspects and quantitative methods.
Table of contents
- Title Page
- Copyright Page
- TEST YOUR JUDGMENT
- ANSWERS TO JUDGMENT QUIZ
PART 1 Introduction to Project Decision Analysis
- CHAPTER 1 Project Decision Analysis: What Is It?
CHAPTER 2 “Gut Feel” vs. Decision Analysis: Introduction to the Psychology of Project Decision-Making
- Human Judgment Is Almost Always to Blame
- Blink or Think?
- Cognitive and Motivational Biases
- Bounded Rationality
- Heuristics and Biases
- Behavioral Traps
- Frames and Accounts
- Training for Project Decision-Making Skills
CHAPTER 3 Understanding the Decision Analysis Process
- Example of Decision Analysis Process
- When Decision Makers Go Bad
- The Decision Analysis Manifesto
- The “3C” Principle of Project Decision Analysis
- Decision Analysis Process versus the PMBOK® Guide’s Project Risk Management Process
- Phases of the Decision Analysis Process
- Big and Small Decisions
CHAPTER 4 What Is Rational Choice? A Brief Introduction to Decision Theory
- Decision Policy
- Which Choice Is Rational?
- Expected Value
- The St. Petersburg Paradox
- Risk-Taker versus Risk-Avoider
- Expected Utility
- Expected Utility Theory
- Extensions of Expected Utility Theory
- How to Use Expected Utility Theory
- Target Oriented Interpretation of Utility
- Descriptive Models of Decision-Making
- CHAPTER 5 Creativity in Project Management
- CHAPTER 6 Group Judgment and Decisions
- CHAPTER 7 Are You Allowed to Make a Decision? Or, About Decision Analysis and Organizational Culture
PART 2 Decision-Framing
- CHAPTER 8 Identifying Problems and Assessing Situations
- CHAPTER 9 Defining Project Objectives
- CHAPTER 10 Generating Alternatives and Identifying Risks
PART 3 Modeling the Situation
CHAPTER 11 The Psychology and Politics of Estimating
- How Do We Make Estimates?
- How Do We Think When We Make Estimates?
- Impact of Politics on Estimation
- Impact of Psychology on Estimation and Rule of Pi
- Student Syndrome
- Other Cognitive Biases in Estimating
- Further Explanations of Problems with Estimation
- Where Does the Problem Lie—in Psychology or Politics?
- Many Mental Errors and One Wrong Estimate
- Simple Remedies
- CHAPTER 12 Project Valuation Models
- CHAPTER 13 Estimating Probabilities
- CHAPTER 11 The Psychology and Politics of Estimating
PART 4 Quantitative Analysis
- CHAPTER 14 Choosing What Is Most Important: Sensitivity Analysis and Correlations
- CHAPTER 15 Decision Trees and the Value of New Information
CHAPTER 16 What Is Project Risk? Monte Carlo Method
- How Much Will It Really Cost?
- Statistical Distributions
- The Monte Carlo Technique
- Which Distribution Should Be Used?
- How Many Trials Are Required?
- Analysis of Monte Carlo Results
- Is Monte Carlo the Ultimate Solution?
CHAPTER 17 “A Series of Unfortunate Events,” Or, Event Chain Methodology
- How Events Can Affect a Project
- Basic Principles of Event Chain Methodology
- Event Chain Methodology Phenomena
- How to Use Event Chain Methodology
- Example of Event Chain Methodology
- Event Chain Methodology and Mitigation of Psychological Biases
- Work Breakdown Structure + Risk Breakdown Structure + Analysis = Event Chain Methodology
- CHAPTER 18 The Art of Decision Analysis Reporting
- CHAPTER 19 Making a Choice with Multiple Objectives
PART 5 Implementation, Monitoring, and Reviews
CHAPTER 20 Adaptive Project Management
- Adaptive Management as Part of Project Decision Analysis
- Principles of Adaptive Management
- The PMBOK Guide Approach to Project Executing, Monitoring, and Controlling
- Adaptive Management and Changing Requirements
- CHAPTER 21 Did You Make the Right Choice? Reviewing Project Decisions
CONCLUSION Does Decision Analysis Provide a Solution?
- Common Misconceptions about Decision Analysis
- Why Do We Believe that the Decision Analysis Process Is So Important?
- CHAPTER 20 Adaptive Project Management
- APPENDIX A Risk and Decision Analysis Software
- APPENDIX B Heuristics and Biases in Project Management
- APPENDIX C Risk Templates
- APPENDIX D Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Methodologies
- FUTURE READING
- ABOUT THE AUTHORS
- Title: Project Decisions, 2nd Edition, 2nd Edition
- Release date: November 2019
- Publisher(s): Berrett-Koehler Publishers
- ISBN: 9781523085460
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