
28
A Bayes ia n Analysis of the Solar C ycle Using
Multiple Pr oxy Variables
David C. Stenning
University of California
David A. van Dyk
Imperial College
Yaming Yu
University of California
Vinay Kashyap
Smithsonian As trophysical Observatory
CONTENTS
28.1 Intro ductio n . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. .. . . . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. .. . . . .. .. . 585
28.2 Modeling the Sola r Cycle with Sunspot Numbers . . . . . . .. .. . . . . . 589
28.2.1 Level one: Modeling the cycles .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. .. .. . . . . . . 589
28.2.2 Level two: Relatio nships between consecutive cycles . . . . 591
28.2.3 Prior distiributions . . .. . . .. . . .