
From Risk Analysis to Adversarial Risk Analysis 331
Counter-
measures
Prop. of
colluders
Cost
operator
Cost
u
D
Prop. of
fraudsters
Fraud
cost
Customers
FIGURE 15.10
Operator’s problem when both types of evaders are present.
Then, the operator would compute
ψ(x) =
Z
"
X
N
1
,N
2
,N
3
M
1
,M
2
,M
3
p
M
1
M
2
M
3
x
× p
1
N
1
x
p
2
N
2
x
p
3
N
3
x
× u
D
(c
D
)
#
× h(r|x) dr,
and solve max
x∈B
ψ(x).
15.7.2 The colluders’ problem
The colluders’ dynamics are as in subsection 15.5.2. The standard evaders are
unorganised attackers and we cannot associate with them a cost structure.
Therefore, the cost faced by the evaders would be as in (15.4). The analysis
in subsection 15.5.2 would be repeated to estimate the h(r|x