
590 Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
t
( i )
0
t
(
i
)
max
t
( i )
1
c
( i )
U
[t ]
t
FIGURE 28.2
Parameterized form of a solar cycle. We illustr ate U
[t]
with c
(i)
= 10, t
(i)
0
=
0, t
(i)
max
= 36, t
(i)
1
= 120, α
1
= 1.9 and α
2
= 1.1 , where U
[t]
is specified by
(28.1) and (28.2).
of this parameterizatio n is that the sta rting point of the the next cycle, t
(i+1)
0
,
is not necessarily identical to the end point of the current cycle, t
(i)
1
. When
two cycles overlap (i.e. when t
(i)
1
> t
(i+1)
0
), the activity level, U
[t]
, is given by
the sum of the contributio ns of the form (28.2) and (28.1) from the respective
cycles; when t
(i)
1
< t
(i+1)