March 2013
Beginner
148 pages
3h 18m
English
Content preview from Decision Analysis for ManagersBecome an O’Reilly member and get unlimited access to this title plus top books and audiobooks from O’Reilly and nearly 200 top publishers, thousands of courses curated by job role, 150+ live events each month,
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Discrete Probability
When hearing or reading the word risk, what comes to your mind? Most people associate risk with the chance that something bad will happen. Some decision analysts use the term risk or the term chance when the unknown outcome has a discrete outcome associated with it: yes or no, success or failure, zero or one. A coin flip has a discrete outcome with a 50% chance of success for either side (heads or tails) of the (presumably honest) coin. Discrete outcomes are always assessed as a percentage (i.e., a number between zero and one), never a range.
For example, weather forecasters assign a percentage for the chance of rain (e.g., 30%). What the percentage means is that, when weather conditions are like they are now, on average ...
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I'm always learning. So when I got on to O'Reilly, I was like a kid in a candy store. There are playlists. There are answers. There's on-demand training. It's worth its weight in gold, in terms of what it allows me to do.