Where Did Decision Analysis Come from?
The statistical foundation for DA began in the 1600s when pioneers like Thomas Bayes, Abraham de Moivre, Daniel Bernoulli, and Blaise Pascal developed probability theory and key theorems that are used in the analysis parts of DA. After World War II, John von Neumann, Oscar Morgenstern, Robert Schlaifer, Ronald Howard, Howard Raiffa, and Ralphy Keeney developed theories of rational decision making based on probability and systems analysis. The practical tools we’ll discuss in this book are a result of the fundamental work developed by these men.
Ward Edwards and Detlof von Winterfeldt included a thorough, concise, and interesting history of DA in their book, Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research.5