O'Reilly logo

Decision Analysis for Managers by David Charlesworth

Stay ahead with the world's most comprehensive technology and business learning platform.

With Safari, you learn the way you learn best. Get unlimited access to videos, live online training, learning paths, books, tutorials, and more.

Start Free Trial

No credit card required

Index

A

Ambiguity, 22–23

Assessment

definition, 47

experts (see Experts assessment)

uncertainty (see Uncertainty assessment)

B

Bush Grid, 22

C

Career decisions, 25–26

Closed decisions, 31–33

Continuous probability

continuous distribution, 48–49

expected values, 50

p10, p50, p50 assessment, 49

rain uncertainty, 49–50

roll back tree, 50

Cost of goods sold (COGS), 42

Cumulative probability graph, 51–52

decision tree

McNamee–Celona method, 87

Offers A and B curve, 89

“one-line” formula, 89

skeleton tree, Offer A, 86

Swanson-McGill weighting, 87–88

IRR, 85

Monte Carlo simulation, 85

advantage and disadvantage, 90

vs. decision tree solution, 93

Great Recession, 92

Offers A, B, and C curve, 91–92

PERCENTILE function, 91

RAND() function, 90

@Risk

With Safari, you learn the way you learn best. Get unlimited access to videos, live online training, learning paths, books, interactive tutorials, and more.

Start Free Trial

No credit card required