March 2013
Beginner
148 pages
3h 18m
English
Content preview from Decision Analysis for Managers
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A
Ambiguity, 22–23
Assessment
definition, 47
experts (see Experts assessment)
uncertainty (see Uncertainty assessment)
B
Bush Grid, 22
C
Career decisions, 25–26
Closed decisions, 31–33
Continuous probability
continuous distribution, 48–49
expected values, 50
p10, p50, p50 assessment, 49
rain uncertainty, 49–50
roll back tree, 50
Cost of goods sold (COGS), 42
Cumulative probability graph, 51–52
decision tree
McNamee–Celona method, 87
Offers A and B curve, 89
“one-line” formula, 89
skeleton tree, Offer A, 86
Swanson-McGill weighting, 87–88
IRR, 85
Monte Carlo simulation, 85
advantage and disadvantage, 90
vs. decision tree solution, 93
Great Recession, 92
Offers A, B, and C curve, 91–92
PERCENTILE function, 91
RAND() function, 90
@Risk™
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