Managing in the Gray

What Are the Net, Net Consequences?

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to rebuild his operations? The thinkers who focused on con-

sequences lived in simpler eras. Perhaps Mozi would have

been less confident about foreseeing beneficial consequences

if he could have stepped into a time machine and glimpsed

the complex, fluid, confusing, and incomprehensively inter-

dependent world we live in today.

The second serious practical challenge is in our heads. We

just aren’t very good at thinking rationally and objectively—

not just about the unknowable future, but about the past

and even the present. Gray areas sometimes bring out strong

emotions and make it hard to think soundly, but that is just

the tip of the iceberg. The challenge runs much deeper.

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The problem is that our minds can ...