
Chapter 16
674
Year Quarter Production Seasonal
indexes
Deseasonalized
production (y)
Predicted trend
values
Predicted values after
deseasonalization and
detrending
2004
1 2400 1.0119 2371.57 2338.5573 2366.38
2 2450 1.0284 2382.26 2359.4699 2426.47
3 2300 0.9909 2321.08 2380.3825 2358.72
4 2270 0.9686 2343.45 2401.2950 2325.89
2005
1 2500 1.0119 2470.38 2422.2076 2451.03
2 2560 1.0284 2489.21 2443.1201 2512.50
3 2400 0.9909 2422 2464.0327 2441.61
4 2350 0.9686 2426.04 2484.9452 2406.91
For obtaining the exact rst value of Column 7 (2112.64) in Figure 16.50, predicted trend value
2087.60671428571… is multiplied by seasonal index 1.01199, which will ...