Hands-On Industrial Internet of Things

Prognostic analytics

Prognostic analytics is an estimation of time to failure and risk for one or more existing and future failure modes (ISO 13381-1: 2015). Prognostic analytics predict the future degradation or damage and the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of an asset or part, based on the measured data.

The goal of prognostics is to predict the cycles remaining before the damage grows beyond the eligibility threshold. In order to predict the RUL, prognostics utilize the measured damage levels or an estimation of the damage up to the current cycle.

Unfortunately, these measures are often affected by uncertainty, which might include noise, bad measurements, and lack of knowledge. When we estimate the RUL, we also have to quantify the probability ...