Commodity Trader's Almanac 2O11

12

u

STOCKS AND BONDS

Last year we introduced the S&P 500’s tendency to see mild declines after

the New Year, as investors often sell positions to defer capital gain taxes on

profits, though overall strength from October can last into April. This year

we introduce the short trade (page 14). Traders can look to take advantage

of the January break on the long side (page 20). This trade has a reliable

trend, registering a 71.4% success rate. See January Break Case Study on

page 121. 30-year Treasury bond prices have a tendency to continue their

decline (page 106), as investors are reallocating money into stocks.

u

ENERGY

January tends to see continued weakness in crude oil (page 145) and in natural

gas (page 147) before the typical bottom is posted in February. Traders should

prepare for the strongest buy month for oil and natural gas (pages 26 and 32).

u

METALS

Gold has a strong history of making a seasonal peak from mid- to late

January into early February. Shorting gold during this time period has

resulted in a cumulative profit of $36,350 over the past 36 years (page 126).

Silver also has a tendency to peak in late February and follows gold price

weakness into March (page 28). Copper tends to respect its seasonal

December bottom to show mild strength in January (page 112).

u

GRAINS

Soybeans tend to post a low in late January or early February (page 161). Wheat

prices tend to see seasonal weakness ...