October 2010
Beginner to intermediate
192 pages
9h 23m
English
Content preview from Commodity Trader's Almanac 2O11
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104
GOLD BUGS GET A TREAT FOR THE HOLIDAYS
Gold prices tend to move up prior to the holidays, and the trend has worked especially well over
the last ten years. Seasonally speaking, it is best for traders to go long on or about November 17
and hold until about December 2. Over the last 35 years, this trade has worked 19 times, for a
success rate of 54.3% .The cumulative profit tallies
up to $23,620. What is interesting is that this trade
has had a 10-year win streak, starting from 2000.
The longer-term record of this trade is not eye-
popping, but with growing inflation concerns due
to a global debt crisis and deficit spending, we
would look for the current winning streak to
continue in 2011 and beyond.
The chart below shows the correlation with
Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold (FCX). It is in
the business of exploration and development of
gold. The FCX stock price line chart is overlaid on
the front-month gold futures contract. The line on
the bottom section is the 35-year average seasonal
price move for gold.
As you can see, both gold and FCX are highly
correlated. What is important here is to see the
seasonality of November’s rally into December.
Notice the price dip in November in gold and
FCX. This price relationship between gold and
producers should continue unless a gold producer
begins an aggressive hedging operation, which
entails selling gold in the futures to lock in
production profits. In this ...
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