38
u
STOCKS AND BONDS
S&P 500 has shown a tendency to see price declines ahead of mid-month
tax deadlines and then a month-end recovery. April is considered one of the
best six months to be long, according to the Stock Traders Almanac. 30-year
Treasury bond price has a tendency to make a seasonal low towards the end
of the month (page 42).
u
ENERGY
Crude oil has a tendency to continue rallying through April into mid-May,
as we are long crude trade from our seasonal best trade in February (pages
26 and 126). This is still one of the best seven months to be long: from
March through September. Natural gas prices tend to peak in mid- to late
April. Our long best seasonal trade from February signals an exit on or about
April 21 (page 32).
u
METALS
Gold has a tendency to decline in April, as tax-related selling pressures prices
(page 40). Our best seasonal short trade for silver from February signals
an exit on or about April 25 (page 28). Copper tends to form a seasonal high
toward the end of April and the first part of May (pages 112 and 149).
u
GRAINS
Soybeans in April still see upside, as planting concerns and demand for both
meal and oil remain strong, U.S. inventories decline, and new supplies are not
yet ready since South America’s harvest is just beginning (page 161). Wheat
is still under pressure, as harvest adds fresh inventories that outweigh demand
(page 164). Corn has a tendency to remain strong, especially as April can lead
to planting delays in cool, wet spring conditions. In addition, April tax season
has passed, and farmers tend to start focusing on production rather than
marketing, allowing inventories to build up on farm locations (page 158).
u
SOFTS
Cocoa’s best seasonal short trade from March signals an exit on or about
April 14 (pages 34 and 126). Coffee prices are seasonally strong, as this is
still just short of the Columbian and Brazilian harvest. It is also the time
when the threat of frost damaging the South American crop is high (page
170). Sugar tends to remain weak during this time frame due to inventory
from sugar cane harvests in the U.S. Southeast and Brazil (page 173).
u
MEATS
Live cattle prices are in a seasonally weak period through mid-June, but we do
see times where prices consolidate, especially if the month prior showed
significant price declines (page 176). Ranchers tend to pay more attention to
breeding in the spring rather than bringing livestock to market. Lean hog
prices, on the other hand, continue to remain firm in April from a seasonal
perspective (page 179). As corn prices increase feed costs, hog producers
have shifted towards liquidating inventories and are preparing for breeding.
Furthermore, competing pork producers from Canada have had more incen -
tives to market their product with the increase in value of the Canadian dollar.
This has magnified the seasonal peak which comes in late May.
u
CURRENCIES
The euro has weakened in April the past three years (page 186). The Swiss
franc continues its seasonally flat period from March until the first part of
August (page 187). The British pound best seasonal long trade from March
signals an exit on or about April 20 (page 36). The yen best seasonal short
trade from March signals an exit on or about April 1 (page 126).
APRIL ALMANAC
SMTW T F S
12
3456789
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
APRIL
SMTW T F S
1234567
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30 31
MAY
Symbol
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
JY
LH
BP
EC
SF
CC
KC
SB
LC
W
GC
SI
C
S
US
CL
NG
HG
SP
BME
APRIL
STRATEGY
CALENDAR
*
* Graphic representation of
the Commodity Seasonality
Percentage Plays on pages
126–127.
L = Long Trade, S = Short
Trade. See pages 133–138
for contract symbols.
c01_CTA_2011_pgs_12-119_c01_cta_2011_pgs_12-119 7/21/10 2:03 PM Page 38

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