Commodity Trader's Almanac 2O11

38

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STOCKS AND BONDS

S&P 500 has shown a tendency to see price declines ahead of mid-month

tax deadlines and then a month-end recovery. April is considered one of the

best six months to be long, according to the Stock Traders Almanac. 30-year

Treasury bond price has a tendency to make a seasonal low towards the end

of the month (page 42).

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ENERGY

Crude oil has a tendency to continue rallying through April into mid-May,

as we are long crude trade from our seasonal best trade in February (pages

26 and 126). This is still one of the best seven months to be long: from

March through September. Natural gas prices tend to peak in mid- to late

April. Our long best seasonal trade from February signals an exit on or about

April 21 (page 32).

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METALS

Gold has a tendency to decline in April, as tax-related selling pressures prices

(page 40). Our best seasonal short trade for silver from February signals

an exit on or about April 25 (page 28). Copper tends to form a seasonal high

toward the end of April and the first part of May (pages 112 and 149).

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GRAINS

Soybeans in April still see upside, as planting concerns and demand for both

meal and oil remain strong, U.S. inventories decline, and new supplies are not

yet ready since South America’s harvest is just beginning (page 161). Wheat

is still under pressure, as harvest adds fresh inventories that outweigh demand

(page 164). Corn has a tendency to remain strong, especially as April can lead

to planting delays in cool, wet spring conditions. In addition, April tax season

has passed, and farmers tend to start focusing on production rather than

marketing, allowing inventories to build up on farm locations (page 158).

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SOFTS

Cocoa’s best seasonal short trade from March signals an exit on or about

April 14 (pages 34 and 126). Coffee prices are seasonally strong, as this is

still just short of the Columbian and Brazilian harvest. It is also the time

when the threat of frost damaging the South American crop is high (page

170). Sugar tends to remain weak during this time frame due to inventory

from sugar cane harvests in the U.S. Southeast and Brazil (page 173).

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MEATS

Live cattle prices are in a seasonally weak period through mid-June, but we do

see times where prices consolidate, especially if the month prior showed

significant price declines (page 176). Ranchers tend to pay more attention to

breeding in the spring rather than bringing livestock to market. Lean hog

prices, on the other hand, continue to remain firm in April from a seasonal

perspective (page 179). As corn prices increase feed costs, hog producers

have shifted towards liquidating inventories and are preparing for breeding.

Furthermore, competing pork producers from Canada have had more incen -

tives to market their product with the increase in value of the Canadian dollar.

This has magnified the seasonal peak which comes in late May.

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CURRENCIES

The euro has weakened in April the past three years (page 186). The Swiss

franc continues its seasonally flat period from March until the first part of

August (page 187). The British pound best seasonal long trade from March

signals an exit on or about April 20 (page 36). The yen best seasonal short

trade from March signals an exit on or about April 1 (page 126).

APRIL ALMANAC

SMTW T F S

12

3456789

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

17 18 19 20 21 22 23

24 25 26 27 28 29 30

APRIL

SMTW T F S

1234567

8 9 10 11 12 13 14

15 16 17 18 19 20 21

22 23 24 25 26 27 28

29 30 31

MAY

Symbol

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

JY

LH

BP

EC

SF

CC

KC

SB

LC

W

GC

SI

C

S

US

CL

NG

HG

SP

BME

APRIL

STRATEGY

CALENDAR

*

* Graphic representation of

the Commodity Seasonality

Percentage Plays on pages

126–127.

L = Long Trade, S = Short

Trade. See pages 133–138

for contract symbols.

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