167
3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
25-Year Pattern
5-Year Pattern
Based on near-term futures contract daily data 1985 –2009
COCOA NEAR-TERM CONTRACT ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, AND CLOSES SINCE 1981
HIGH LOW YEAR HIGH LOW YEAR
YEAR DATE CLOSE DATE CLOSE CLOSE YEAR DATE CLOSE DATE CLOSE CLOSE
1981 09/02 2272 06/05 1403 2054 1996 06/12 1458 03/13 1211 1374
1982 01/05 2159 07/19 1344 1603 1997 12/15 1762 01/23 1260 1630
1983 12/30 2755 01/04 1590 2755 1998 05/14 1748 12/30 1376 1379
1984 05/22 2730 08/01 1963 2052 1999 01/12 1392 11/08 806 836
1985 03/29 2469 06/24 1968 2298 2000 03/16 935 11/27 714 758
1986 01/02 2307 06/02 1722 1935 2001 11/29 1349 01/03 753 1310
1987 07/15 2125 12/08 1743 1814 2002 10/10 2374 01/18 1286 2021
1988 01/21 1942 09/29 1116 1500 2003 01/31 2409 10/17 1367 1515
1989 02/15 1566 12/14 898 925 2004 11/08 1792 05/17 1314 1547
1990 05/24 1493 01/03 912 1150 2005 03/18 1844 11/07 1322 1504
1991 12/16 1333 07/09 904 1245 2006 07/10 1734 10/16 1406 1635
1992 01/02 1253 06/24 831 936 2007 12/19 2132 01/26 1578 2035
1993 12/03 1316 06/07 849 1144 2008 07/01 3275 11/06 1913 2665
1994 07/15 1522 02/02 1051 1280 2009 12/16 3498 03/02 2213 3289
1995 02/24 1461 07/10 1216 1258 2010 01/19 3461 03/09 2802
AT PRESS TIME
*Through April 30, 2010
COCOA CYCLE, SEASONAL PATTERN, AND TRADING GUIDE
The cocoa bean grows on a tropical plant, thriving only in hot, rainy climates with cultivation
generally confined to areas not more than 20 degrees north or south of the equator. The tree
takes four or five years after planting to yield cocoa beans and then takes anywhere from eight
to ten years to achieve maximum production. That is why it is susceptible to frost scares. The
fruit of the cocoa tree appears as pods, primarily on the trees trunk and lower main branches.
When ripe, these pods are cut down and opened; and the beans are removed, fermented, and
dried. The cocoa butter extracted from the bean is used in a number of products, ranging from
cosmetics to pharmaceuticals, but its main use is in the manufacture of chocolate candy.
Currently, the Ivory Coast is the world’s leading cocoa producing nation. Ghana and
Indonesia rank next among major world producers, followed by Brazil, Nigeria, and Malaysia.
The leading cocoa bean importing nations are the Netherlands, United States, and Germany.
These countries accounted for about 54% of world imports. The U.S. is the leading importer of
cocoa products such as cocoa butter, liquor, and powder—accounting for 12% of world imports.
This market has two crop seasons due to the production areas of Ghana and South America.
Cocoa has a strong seasonal tendency to bottom in June, due to the new crop harvest, and then
peaks in March, when supplies have declined and confectioners and processors have accumu-
lated inventories ahead of the high-consumption periods around Valentine’s Day and Easter.
COCOA ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN
c02_CTA_2011_pgs_120-182_c02_CTA_2011_pgs_120-182 7/19/10 10:45 PM Page 167

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