Commodity Trader's Almanac 2O11

164

CBOT WHEAT ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN

CBOT WHEAT CYCLE, SEASONAL PATTERN, AND TRADING GUIDE

This grade of wheat is called winter wheat, since it is planted in the fall and

harvested in midsummer. CBOT wheat is a lower-end soft red wheat that is

primarily used in pastries, cakes and cookies, and other related products.

Since harvest is typically around the June–July time period, this is when

supplies are most abundant, even in years when crop yields are less than

average. This is what we call the harvest lows, as we now begin to sell and

export our inventories. After the new year, prices tend to continue to decline, as

Southern Hemisphere supplies enter the world market. This may explain a

well-known phenomenon called the “February Break”, whereby wheat prices

usually show some degree of decline during the month of February.

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

25-Year Pattern

5-Year Pattern

Based on near-term futures contract daily data 1985–2009

CBOT WHEAT NEAR-TERM CONTRACT ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, AND CLOSES SINCE 1969

HIGH LOW YEAR HIGH LOW YEAR

YEAR DATE CLOSE DATE CLOSE CLOSE YEAR DATE CLOSE DATE CLOSE CLOSE

1969 12/24 148 07/28 121 1/4 147 3/8 1990 01/03 410 11/20 245 1/4 260 1/2

1970 11/05 179 05/28 134 1/2 168 1/2 1991 12/26 405 3/4 01/15 246 1/4 404 3/4

1971 01/15 172 1/2 08/11 141 1/2 163 1/8 1992 02/10 459 1/2 08/13 305 3/4 353 3/4

1972 12/14 269 1/2 06/23