Commodity Trader's Almanac 2O11

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STOCKS AND BONDS

We are holding our best seasonal percentage play, which is long the S&P’s March

futures contract from October 27 and holding until December 27 (page 96). Short-

term traders watch for a rally the day before Thanksgiving and the day after,

known as “Black Friday.” 30-year Treasury bond prices tend to decline in late

November. We have a seasonal short play selling the June futures contract on or

about November 18 and holding through April 25 the following year (page 106).

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ENERGY

Crude oil continues to be in a seasonally weak period. We are still short from

September, holding that position until about December 9 (page 80). November

is a mixed month for natural gas, depending on the temperatures in the

Midwest. Beginning in October, if weather patterns are mild, then we see less

demand; prices tend to consolidate (page 147).

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METALS

Cover the short gold position from October on or about November 8 (page

127). Look to reverse that position and go long a February futures contract on

or about November 17 until about December 2 (page 104). In 2009, using tim-

ing tools to cover the short before November 1 would have been profitable. The

long trade was outstanding, as gold posted an interim high on December 3,

before giving back all November’s gains. Aggressive traders can look to go

long December silver in tandem with gold (page 155). Copper’s seasonal

downtrend continues through December ...