Commodity Trader's Almanac 2O11

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STOCKS AND BONDS

S&P’s have shown a tendency to see price declines—as the saying goes “sell in

May and go away.” However, no one said it was the beginning of the month.

In recent years we start to see stocks peak in mid- to end-of-month, as illustrated

in our seasonal chart (page 140). 30-year Treasury bonds prices continue their

bottoming process in May, as seen in our seasonal chart (pages 42 and 142).

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ENERGY

Liquidate crude oil long from February on or about May 11 (pages 26 and

126). Natural gas generally consolidates during the month of May prior to

forming a mid-June peak, followed by early summer weakness (page 147).

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METALS

Gold continues to remain weak from a seasonal perspective headed into the

early summer month trading doldrums. Silver sees a strong tendency to

peak—look to sell silver on or about May 13 and hold through June 24

for a 64.9% win ratio and a cumulative gain of $58,045 the last 37 years,

and a four-year win steak from 2006–2009 (pages 50 and 125). Get short

copper on or about May 11, exit on or about May 31; 23 wins out of 37 years.

2007 and 2008 totaled over $10,163 in profits (page 48).

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GRAINS

Soybeans tend to peak out and start a seasonal decline towards the end of the

month in most normal weather years, as planting is well established and

the crop growing season is well underway. This lasts through early August when

“drought scares” develop. This is the time to take ...