Commodity Trader's Almanac 2O11

190

YEN ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN

JAPANESE YEN CYCLE, SEASONAL PATTERN, AND TRADING GUIDE

The Japanese economy has been considered the second most technologically

advanced economy in the world, but the gap is closing with China and the

combined eurozone nations. This market and economy is driven by finished

goods production, as they are a net importer of raw materials. The Japanese

economy is heavily dependent on crude oil imports.

Their economy runs on a fiscal year from April through March, but since the

yen contract is valued against the U.S. dollar, we have a tendency to see bottoms

in late August, as multi-conglomerate international companies make their fiscal

year-end adjustments. We see peaks in October against the U.S. dollar, as money

flows back into the United States for year-end tax adjustment purposes, also

referred to as repatriation of funds.

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

25-Year Pattern

5-Year Pattern

Based on near-term futures contract daily data 1985–2009

YEN NEAR-TERM CONTRACT ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, AND CLOSES SINCE 1978

HIGH LOW YEAR HIGH LOW YEAR

YEAR DATE CLOSE DATE CLOSE CLOSE YEAR DATE CLOSE DATE CLOSE CLOSE

1978 10/30 57.23 02/03 41.45 52.70 1995 04/18 124.91 11/02 96.75 97.73

1979 01/02 52.72 11/26 39.99 41.97 1996 01/02 97.21 12/30 87.00 87.13

1980 12/30 50.33 04/07 38.48 50.25 1997 06/11 91.29 12/05 76.89 77.36

1981 01/05 51.13 08/04 41.21 46.24 ...