185
EURO ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN
EURO CYCLE, SEASONAL PATTERN, AND TRADING GUIDE
The euro is quoted in terms of the U.S. dollar, which is considered the world’s
reserve currency in which most internationally traded goods are priced. This
contract from a historic perspective is relatively new. One can adjust the value
to reflect the more historic theoretical value by combining the prices of the
German Deutsche mark, the French franc, and the Italian lira.
The market has seen a tendency of bottoms in September, as multi-
conglomerate international companies make their fiscal year-end adjustments;
and we see peaks in December against the U.S. dollar, as money flows back into
the United States for year-end tax adjustment purposes.
–
3.0
–
2.0
–
1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
11-Year Pattern
5-Year Pattern
Based on near-term futures contract daily data 1999–2009
EURO NEAR-TERM CONTRACT ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, AND CLOSES SINCE 1999
HIGH LOW YEAR HIGH LOW YEAR
YEAR DATE CLOSE DATE CLOSE CLOSE YEAR DATE CLOSE DATE CLOSE CLOSE
1999 01/04 116.09 12/03 106.68 107.35 2005 01/03 134.90 11/16 117.06 118.80
2000 01/11 108.44 10/25 97.82 103.60 2006 12/01 133.43 02/27 118.64 132.36
2001 01/05 104.45 12/24 87.35 88.78 2007 11/26 148.72 01/11 129.28 145.90
2002 12/31 104.71 01/31 85.68 104.71 2008 04/22 159.64 11/12 124.89 139.21
2003 12/31 125.34 01/02 103.30 125.34 2009 11/25 151.37 03/05 125.43 143.34
2004 12/30 136.59 05/13 118.11 135.58 2010* 01/11 145.19 04/28 131.89
AT PRESS TIME
*Through April 30, 2010
c03_CTA_2011_pgs_183-192_CTA 2011 pgs 183-192 7/19/10 11:03 PM Page 185
186
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
113.64 111.78 110.63 109.66 108.63 108.58 110.31 109.54 110.26 109.46 107.01 107.35
105.12 104.85 104.52 102.04 103.31 104.39 102.93 100.83 100.67 98.90 100.02 103.60
103.17 102.61 100.37 100.79 98.65 98.77 100.10 101.91 101.85 101.33 101.18 88.78
85.68 86.82 86.82 89.90 93.17 98.85 97.49 98.02 98.34 98.71 99.35 104.71
107.36 107.95 108.68 111.59 117.83 114.69 112.26 109.66 116.20 115.59 119.84 125.34
124.48 124.89 122.80 119.69 122.10 121.78 120.07 121.69 124.32 127.87 132.92 135.58
130.35 132.43 129.82 128.79 123.06 121.37 121.51 123.44 120.59 120.23 118.04 118.80
121.78 119.29 121.79 126.52 128.24 128.50 128.13 128.23 127.39 127.96 132.60 132.36
130.57 132.42 133.94 136.76 134.63 135.68 137.11 136.47 142.93 145.10 146.43 145.90
148.59 151.85 157.29 156.09 155.46 156.90 155.57 146.31 141.34 127.41 127.00 139.21
127.85 126.96 132.83 132.61 141.31 140.40 142.54 143.30 146.45 147.26 149.91 143.34
138.65 136.21 135.36 133.08
EURO NEAR-TERM CONTRACT MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES
EURO NEAR-TERM CONTRACT MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
Yearʼs
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Change
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
TOTALS
AVG.
# Up
# Down
–1.7 –1.6 –1.0 –0.9 –0.9 –0.1 1.6 –0.7 0.7 –0.7 –2.2 0.3 –7.1
–2.1 –0.3 –0.3 –2.4
1.2 1.0 –1.4 –2.0 –0.2 –1.8 1.1 3.6 –3.5
–0.4 –0.5 –2.2
0.4 –2.1 0.1 1.3 1.8 –0.1 –0.5 –0.1 –12.3 –14.3
–3.5
1.3 N/C 3.5 3.6 6.1 –1.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 5.4 17.9
2.5 0.5 0.7 2.7 5.6
–2.7 –2.1 –2.3 6.0 –0.5 3.7 4.6 19.7
–0.7 0.3 –1.7 –2.5 2.0 –0.3 –1.4 1.3 2.2 2.9 3.9 2.0 8.2
–3.9 1.6 –2.0 –0.8 –4.4 –1.4 0.1 1.6 –2.3 –0.3 –1.8 0.6 –12.4
2.5 –2.0 2.1 3.9 1.4 0.2 –0.3 0.1 –0.7 0.4 3.6 –0.2 11.4
–1.4 1.4 1.1 2.1 –1.6 0.8 1.1 –0.5 4.7 1.5 0.9 –0.4 10.2
1.8 2.2 3.6
–0.8 –0.4 0.9 –0.8 –6.0 –3.4 –9.9 –0.3 9.6 –4.6
–8.2 –0.7
4.6 –0.2 6.6 –0.6 1.5 0.5 2.2 0.6 1.8 –4.4 3.0
–3.3 –1.8 –0.6 –1.7
–18.4
0.4 4.3 3.3 11.0 4.0 –1.8 –5.7 9.4 –7.9 11.2 8.8
–1.5 0.03 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.4 –0.2 –0.5 0.9 –0.7 1.0 0.8
3655 6 6 566 5 77
9667 5 5 655 6 44
c03_CTA_2011_pgs_183-192_CTA 2011 pgs 183-192 7/19/10 11:03 PM Page 186
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