Commodity Trader's Almanac 2O11

182

BRITISH POUND ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN

BRITISH POUND CYCLE, SEASONAL PATTERN, AND TRADING GUIDE

The British economy is driven by manufacturing, agricultural production, and

energy production from oil, coal, and natural gas, which is considered to account

for as much as 10% of Britain’s gross domestic production. In addition, London

is considered the world’s leading international financial service center.

Their economy runs on a fiscal year which begins in April. Since the pound

is valued against the U.S. dollar, we have a tendency to see bottoms in March,

as multi-conglomerate international companies make their fiscal year-end

adjustments. We see a major peak in December against the U.S. dollar, as money

flows back into the United States for year-end tax adjustment purposes, also

referred to as repatriation of funds.

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

25-Year Pattern

5-Year Pattern

Based on near-term futures contract daily data 1985–2009

BRITISH POUND NEAR-TERM CONTRACT ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, AND CLOSES SINCE 1976

HIGH LOW YEAR HIGH LOW YEAR

YEAR DATE CLOSE DATE CLOSE CLOSE YEAR DATE CLOSE DATE CLOSE CLOSE

1976 02/26 202.40 10/28 154.05 166.40 1994 10/25 163.74 02/09 145.78 156.70

1977 12/30 191.95 01/03 166.95 191.95 1995 03/07 164.42 12/12 152.88 155.14

1978 10/30 209.75 05/19 180.05 204.10 1996 12/31 171.24 05/01 149.02 171.24

1979 07/24 231.75 02/02 197.20 220.15 1997 ...