164
CBOT WHEAT ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN
CBOT WHEAT CYCLE, SEASONAL PATTERN, AND TRADING GUIDE
This grade of wheat is called winter wheat, since it is planted in the fall and
harvested in midsummer. CBOT wheat is a lower-end soft red wheat that is
primarily used in pastries, cakes and cookies, and other related products.
Since harvest is typically around the June–July time period, this is when
supplies are most abundant, even in years when crop yields are less than
average. This is what we call the harvest lows, as we now begin to sell and
export our inventories. After the new year, prices tend to continue to decline, as
Southern Hemisphere supplies enter the world market. This may explain a
well-known phenomenon called the “February Break”, whereby wheat prices
usually show some degree of decline during the month of February.
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
25-Year Pattern
5-Year Pattern
Based on near-term futures contract daily data 1985–2009
CBOT WHEAT NEAR-TERM CONTRACT ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, AND CLOSES SINCE 1969
HIGH LOW YEAR HIGH LOW YEAR
YEAR DATE CLOSE DATE CLOSE CLOSE YEAR DATE CLOSE DATE CLOSE CLOSE
1969 12/24 148 07/28 121 1/4 147 3/8 1990 01/03 410 11/20 245 1/4 260 1/2
1970 11/05 179 05/28 134 1/2 168 1/2 1991 12/26 405 3/4 01/15 246 1/4 404 3/4
1971 01/15 172 1/2 08/11 141 1/2 163 1/8 1992 02/10 459 1/2 08/13 305 3/4 353 3/4
1972 12/14 269 1/2 06/23 141 1/8 264 1993 01/19 392 1/2 06/17 277 1/2 378 1/4
1973 12/31 545 03/21 214 3/4 545 1994 10/11 416 1/4 07/06 313 1/2 401 1/2
1974 02/15 631 1/2 05/09 336 458 1/2 1995 12/29 512 1/4 03/10 341 1/2 512 1/4
1975 08/22 463 06/02 295 3/4 335 3/4 1996 04/25 628 1/2 11/05 368 3/4 381 1/4
1976 02/27 401 3/4 11/11 255 3/4 277 1/2 1997 04/22 447 07/07 321 3/4 325 3/4
1977 02/24 293 3/4 08/19 217 1/4 279 1/4 1998 03/11 348 08/05 246 3/4 276 1/4
1978 11/30 369 02/28 260 3/4 343 1/4 1999 03/29 294 1/4 12/13 237 3/4 248 1/2
1979 06/22 489 1/2 04/23 326 1/2 454 1/4 2000 06/22 289 3/4 08/07 233 1/2 279 1/2
1980 10/28 541 1/2 04/18 380 1/2 501 2001 11/23 296 1/4 06/28 254 1/2 289
1981 01/02 508 1/2 12/23 376 1/4 391 1/2 2002 09/09 422 04/29 265 325
1982 01/08 402 10/21 301 3/4 330 3/4 2003 12/03 414 3/4 03/28 279 1/4 377
1983 08/22 423 1/4 02/28 321 1/2 363 1/2 2004 03/22 422 3/4 12/02 296 1/4 307 1/2
1984 04/04 377 1/4 02/13 321 3/4 347 3/4 2005 03/15 368 02/04 287 3/4 339 1/4
1985 04/08 370 3/4 08/20 280 1/4 343 1/4 2006 10/16 542 1/2 01/18 322 1/2 501
1986 01/02 339 1/2 07/01 240 1/2 274 1/2 2007 12/14 979 1/2 04/03 419 885
1987 12/18 321 07/21 256 3/4 310 3/4 2008 03/12 1282 1/2 12/05 475 1/2 610 3/4
1988 12/23 440 1/2 03/10 297 3/4 440 2009 06/01 674 1/2 10/02 441 1/4 541 1/2
1989 01/06 448 3/4 06/08 381 3/4 409 1/4 2010* 01/11 572 1/2 03/31 450 1/2
AT PRESS TIME
*Through April 30, 2010
c02_CTA_2011_pgs_120-182_c02_CTA_2011_pgs_120-182 7/19/10 10:45 PM Page 164

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