Commodity Trader's Almanac 2O11

22

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STOCKS AND BONDS

S&P 500 has shown a tendency to decline before Presidents’ Day weekend

holiday, and as our seasonal pattern shows (page 140), the S&P 500 tends to

continue that decline into March in recent years. 30-year Treasury bond

prices have a tendency to continue their decline in February, as we hold a

short position from November (page 106).

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ENERGY

Crude oil makes a strong seasonal bottom, registering a whopping 85.2%

success rate with 23 gains in 27 years (pages 26, 123, and 126). February

marked the annual low in 2009 and a seasonal low in 2010 (page 145).

Natural gas also generates a stellar trade from its mid-winter bottom with a

75.0% success rate, gaining 15 out of the last 20 years (page 32).

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METALS

Gold has demonstrated a tradable seasonal downturn from late February to

mid-March (page 126). In 2009, gold peaked at $1013 on February 20 and

traded towards $870 by April 6. Silver tends to make price declines in

sympathy with gold’s seasonal declines. In the past 38 years, silver has

declined 29 years for a 76.3% success rate (page 28). Copper prices tend to

move in the opposite direction of gold and silver. However, the best trade

from December suggests exiting longs on strength during February on or

about the 22nd of the month (page 112).

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GRAINS

Soybeans register a recovery rally from January’s break that lasts into the May

peak. Soybeans have seen price advances from mid-Febr ...