Commodity Trader's Almanac 2O11

190

YEN ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN

JAPANESE YEN CYCLE, SEASONAL PATTERN, AND TRADING GUIDE

The Japanese economy has been considered the second most technologically

advanced economy in the world, but the gap is closing with China and the

combined eurozone nations. This market and economy is driven by finished

goods production, as they are a net importer of raw materials. The Japanese

economy is heavily dependent on crude oil imports.

Their economy runs on a fiscal year from April through March, but since the

yen contract is valued against the U.S. dollar, we have a tendency to see bottoms

in late August, as multi-conglomerate international companies make their fiscal

year-end adjustments. We see peaks in October against the U.S. dollar, as money

flows back into the United States for year-end tax adjustment purposes, also

referred to as repatriation of funds.

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3

–

2

–

1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

25-Year Pattern

5-Year Pattern

Based on near-term futures contract daily data 1985–2009

YEN NEAR-TERM CONTRACT ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, AND CLOSES SINCE 1978

HIGH LOW YEAR HIGH LOW YEAR

YEAR DATE CLOSE DATE CLOSE CLOSE YEAR DATE CLOSE DATE CLOSE CLOSE

1978 10/30 57.23 02/03 41.45 52.70 1995 04/18 124.91 11/02 96.75 97.73

1979 01/02 52.72 11/26 39.99 41.97 1996 01/02 97.21 12/30 87.00 87.13

1980 12/30 50.33 04/07 38.48 50.25 1997 06/11 91.29 12/05 76.89 77.36

1981 01/05 51.13 08/04 41.21 46.24 1998 12/31 88.84 08/11 68.19 88.84

1982 01/04 46.43 11/03 36.10 43.15 1999 12/22 99.56 05/20 80.65 98.92

1983 01/10 44.26 09/01 40.51 43.71 2000 01/03 99.64 12/29 88.27 88.27

1984 03/08 45.48 12/31 39.87 39.87 2001 01/03 88.99 12/27 76.22 76.29

1985 12/31 50.04 02/22 38.07 50.04 2002 07/19 86.66 02/26 74.34 84.47

1986 09/19 65.97 01/03 49.30 63.54 2003 12/29 93.72 03/21 82.51 93.18

1987 12/31 83.16 01/05 62.99 83.16 2004 12/31 97.97 05/13 87.40 97.97

1988 12/08 82.87 09/01 73.41 80.69 2005 01/14 98.38 12/07 82.76 85.51

1989 01/03 81.49 06/14 67.65 69.68 2006 05/16 91.54 10/10 84.30 84.84

1990 10/18 80.30 04/17 62.73 73.84 2007 11/26 92.94 06/22 81.62 90.13

1991 12/31 79.91 06/10 70.30 79.91 2008 12/17 113.79 08/15 90.62 110.29

1992 09/29 83.68 04/23 74.13 80.04 2009 11/30 115.91 04/06 99.17 107.40

1993 08/17 98.93 01/15 79.25 89.59 2010* 03/03 113.14 04/02 105.66

AT PRESS TIME

1994 10/25 103.87 01/05 88.78 101.08

*Through April 30, 2010

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191

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

41.60 42.17 46.16 44.67 45.60 49.88 53.16 52.25 53.61 56.29 50.50 52.70

49.95 49.69 48.13 45.40 45.39 46.27 46.34 45.70 44.99 42.77 40.17 41.97

42.17 39.80 40.37 41.83 44.74 45.18 43.76 45.75 47.68 47.66 46.21 50.25

48.98 47.83 47.94 46.76 44.95 44.83 42.16 43.24 43.75 43.44 46.86 46.24

44.31 42.21 41.06 42.76 41.14 39.73 38.98 38.51 37.53 36.25 40.18 43.15

41.77 41.78 42.06 42.17 41.77 42.06 41.23 40.73 42.71 42.75 43.12 43.71

42.80 42.92 44.98 44.40 43.28 42.65 40.92 41.43 40.96 41.00 40.43 39.87

39.28 38.53 40.14 39.72 39.94 40.39 42.46 41.84 46.40 47.38 49.42 50.04

52.17 55.51 56.56 59.24 57.37 61.60 65.22 64.99 64.91 61.34 61.82 63.54

65.16 65.31 68.93 71.56 69.62 68.63 66.93 70.33 68.74 72.54 75.82 83.16

78.38 78.02 80.87 80.22 79.98 75.65 75.45 73.45 75.38 79.92 82.49 80.69

77.14 78.97 76.32 75.75 70.06 70.07 73.48 68.98 72.43 70.24 70.12 69.68

69.39 67.20 63.42 63.07 65.73 65.86 68.59 69.58 72.18 76.92 75.38 73.84

76.14 75.10 70.55 73.22 72.27 72.47 72.66 73.05 75.10 76.38 76.95 79.91

79.32 77.14 75.30 74.98 78.32 79.46 78.60 81.22 83.22 81.00 80.21 80.04

80.11 84.56 87.04 90.10 93.17 93.49 95.51 95.47 94.30 92.27 91.66 89.59

92.16 95.65 98.21 98.70 95.49 102.11 100.15 99.99 101.48 103.58 101.23 101.08

100.75 103.55 116.57 119.54 118.74 119.21 114.00 102.94 101.26 98.60 98.15 97.73

94.02 95.25 94.26 95.83 92.66 92.21 94.37 92.00 90.76 88.22 88.02 87.13

82.81 83.43 81.78 79.25 86.22 88.26 84.81 82.81 83.92 83.59 78.42 77.36

79.15 79.48 75.87 75.67 72.22 72.66 69.54 71.07 73.90 86.71 81.34 88.84

86.37 84.16 84.86 84.20 82.50 83.48 87.87 91.47 95.00 96.59 98.33 98.92

93.68 91.00 99.08 93.18 93.15 95.77 92.24 93.96 93.73 92.47 90.85 88.27

86.47 85.36 80.08 81.32 84.07 80.79 80.32 84.32 84.15 81.98 81.03 76.29

74.36 74.89 75.67 78.02 80.54 84.03 83.68 84.33 82.43 81.68 81.59 84.47

83.52 84.74 84.82 84.24 83.87 83.69 83.04 85.80 89.96 90.99 91.34 93.18

94.68 91.62 96.04 90.73 90.61 92.20 89.92 91.56 91.27 94.66 97.21 97.97

96.75 95.77 93.83 95.69 92.27 90.92 89.40 90.54 88.77 86.42 83.65 85.51

85.63 86.55 85.85 88.52 88.98 88.32 87.84 85.39 85.59 86.08 86.56 84.84

83.36 84.73 85.75 84.17 82.34 82.01 84.69 86.45 87.97 87.16 90.12 90.13

94.25 96.29 100.71 96.50 94.91 94.71 92.92 92.02 94.98 101.40 104.65 110.29

111.38 102.19 101.04 101.37 105.11 103.89 105.50 107.56 111.62 111.13 115.91 107.40

110.25 112.53 107.03 106.51

JAPANESE YEN NEAR-TERM CONTRACT MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES

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