190
YEN ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN
JAPANESE YEN CYCLE, SEASONAL PATTERN, AND TRADING GUIDE
The Japanese economy has been considered the second most technologically
advanced economy in the world, but the gap is closing with China and the
combined eurozone nations. This market and economy is driven by finished
goods production, as they are a net importer of raw materials. The Japanese
economy is heavily dependent on crude oil imports.
Their economy runs on a fiscal year from April through March, but since the
yen contract is valued against the U.S. dollar, we have a tendency to see bottoms
in late August, as multi-conglomerate international companies make their fiscal
year-end adjustments. We see peaks in October against the U.S. dollar, as money
flows back into the United States for year-end tax adjustment purposes, also
referred to as repatriation of funds.
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
25-Year Pattern
5-Year Pattern
Based on near-term futures contract daily data 1985–2009
YEN NEAR-TERM CONTRACT ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, AND CLOSES SINCE 1978
HIGH LOW YEAR HIGH LOW YEAR
YEAR DATE CLOSE DATE CLOSE CLOSE YEAR DATE CLOSE DATE CLOSE CLOSE
1978 10/30 57.23 02/03 41.45 52.70 1995 04/18 124.91 11/02 96.75 97.73
1979 01/02 52.72 11/26 39.99 41.97 1996 01/02 97.21 12/30 87.00 87.13
1980 12/30 50.33 04/07 38.48 50.25 1997 06/11 91.29 12/05 76.89 77.36
1981 01/05 51.13 08/04 41.21 46.24 1998 12/31 88.84 08/11 68.19 88.84
1982 01/04 46.43 11/03 36.10 43.15 1999 12/22 99.56 05/20 80.65 98.92
1983 01/10 44.26 09/01 40.51 43.71 2000 01/03 99.64 12/29 88.27 88.27
1984 03/08 45.48 12/31 39.87 39.87 2001 01/03 88.99 12/27 76.22 76.29
1985 12/31 50.04 02/22 38.07 50.04 2002 07/19 86.66 02/26 74.34 84.47
1986 09/19 65.97 01/03 49.30 63.54 2003 12/29 93.72 03/21 82.51 93.18
1987 12/31 83.16 01/05 62.99 83.16 2004 12/31 97.97 05/13 87.40 97.97
1988 12/08 82.87 09/01 73.41 80.69 2005 01/14 98.38 12/07 82.76 85.51
1989 01/03 81.49 06/14 67.65 69.68 2006 05/16 91.54 10/10 84.30 84.84
1990 10/18 80.30 04/17 62.73 73.84 2007 11/26 92.94 06/22 81.62 90.13
1991 12/31 79.91 06/10 70.30 79.91 2008 12/17 113.79 08/15 90.62 110.29
1992 09/29 83.68 04/23 74.13 80.04 2009 11/30 115.91 04/06 99.17 107.40
1993 08/17 98.93 01/15 79.25 89.59 2010* 03/03 113.14 04/02 105.66
AT PRESS TIME
1994 10/25 103.87 01/05 88.78 101.08
*Through April 30, 2010
c03_CTA_2011_pgs_183-192_CTA 2011 pgs 183-192 7/19/10 11:03 PM Page 190
191
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
41.60 42.17 46.16 44.67 45.60 49.88 53.16 52.25 53.61 56.29 50.50 52.70
49.95 49.69 48.13 45.40 45.39 46.27 46.34 45.70 44.99 42.77 40.17 41.97
42.17 39.80 40.37 41.83 44.74 45.18 43.76 45.75 47.68 47.66 46.21 50.25
48.98 47.83 47.94 46.76 44.95 44.83 42.16 43.24 43.75 43.44 46.86 46.24
44.31 42.21 41.06 42.76 41.14 39.73 38.98 38.51 37.53 36.25 40.18 43.15
41.77 41.78 42.06 42.17 41.77 42.06 41.23 40.73 42.71 42.75 43.12 43.71
42.80 42.92 44.98 44.40 43.28 42.65 40.92 41.43 40.96 41.00 40.43 39.87
39.28 38.53 40.14 39.72 39.94 40.39 42.46 41.84 46.40 47.38 49.42 50.04
52.17 55.51 56.56 59.24 57.37 61.60 65.22 64.99 64.91 61.34 61.82 63.54
65.16 65.31 68.93 71.56 69.62 68.63 66.93 70.33 68.74 72.54 75.82 83.16
78.38 78.02 80.87 80.22 79.98 75.65 75.45 73.45 75.38 79.92 82.49 80.69
77.14 78.97 76.32 75.75 70.06 70.07 73.48 68.98 72.43 70.24 70.12 69.68
69.39 67.20 63.42 63.07 65.73 65.86 68.59 69.58 72.18 76.92 75.38 73.84
76.14 75.10 70.55 73.22 72.27 72.47 72.66 73.05 75.10 76.38 76.95 79.91
79.32 77.14 75.30 74.98 78.32 79.46 78.60 81.22 83.22 81.00 80.21 80.04
80.11 84.56 87.04 90.10 93.17 93.49 95.51 95.47 94.30 92.27 91.66 89.59
92.16 95.65 98.21 98.70 95.49 102.11 100.15 99.99 101.48 103.58 101.23 101.08
100.75 103.55 116.57 119.54 118.74 119.21 114.00 102.94 101.26 98.60 98.15 97.73
94.02 95.25 94.26 95.83 92.66 92.21 94.37 92.00 90.76 88.22 88.02 87.13
82.81 83.43 81.78 79.25 86.22 88.26 84.81 82.81 83.92 83.59 78.42 77.36
79.15 79.48 75.87 75.67 72.22 72.66 69.54 71.07 73.90 86.71 81.34 88.84
86.37 84.16 84.86 84.20 82.50 83.48 87.87 91.47 95.00 96.59 98.33 98.92
93.68 91.00 99.08 93.18 93.15 95.77 92.24 93.96 93.73 92.47 90.85 88.27
86.47 85.36 80.08 81.32 84.07 80.79 80.32 84.32 84.15 81.98 81.03 76.29
74.36 74.89 75.67 78.02 80.54 84.03 83.68 84.33 82.43 81.68 81.59 84.47
83.52 84.74 84.82 84.24 83.87 83.69 83.04 85.80 89.96 90.99 91.34 93.18
94.68 91.62 96.04 90.73 90.61 92.20 89.92 91.56 91.27 94.66 97.21 97.97
96.75 95.77 93.83 95.69 92.27 90.92 89.40 90.54 88.77 86.42 83.65 85.51
85.63 86.55 85.85 88.52 88.98 88.32 87.84 85.39 85.59 86.08 86.56 84.84
83.36 84.73 85.75 84.17 82.34 82.01 84.69 86.45 87.97 87.16 90.12 90.13
94.25 96.29 100.71 96.50 94.91 94.71 92.92 92.02 94.98 101.40 104.65 110.29
111.38 102.19 101.04 101.37 105.11 103.89 105.50 107.56 111.62 111.13 115.91 107.40
110.25 112.53 107.03 106.51
JAPANESE YEN NEAR-TERM CONTRACT MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES
c03_CTA_2011_pgs_183-192_CTA 2011 pgs 183-192 7/19/10 11:03 PM Page 191

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