Commodity Trader's Almanac 2O11

187

SWISS FRANC ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN

SWISS FRANC CYCLE, SEASONAL PATTERN, AND TRADING GUIDE

The Swiss economy is driven by exporting technologically advanced machinery,

agricultural products, and some chemical production. However, it is a major player

in the banking community as a safe haven for international investors and a store

house for gold bullion. Many times we see the value in the franc rise, as gold prices

move up and the value of the U.S. dollar declines. In time of political and economic

uncertainties, we also see the value in the franc rise against the U.S. dollar.

Their economy runs on a fiscal year that begins in January and ends in December.

Since the franc is valued against the U.S. dollar, we have a tendency to see bottoms

in June–August, when, coincidently, gold prices have a tendency to bottom. And as

multi-conglomerate international companies make their fiscal year-end adjustments,

we see a major peak in December against the U.S. dollar, as money flows go back

into the United States for year-end tax adjustment purposes, also referred to as

repatriation of funds.

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3

–

2

–

1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

25-Year Pattern

5-Year Pattern

Based on near-term futures contract daily data 1985–2009

SWISS FRANC NEAR-TERM CONTRACT ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, AND CLOSES SINCE 1976

HIGH LOW YEAR HIGH LOW YEAR

YEAR DATE CLOSE DATE CLOSE CLOSE YEAR DATE CLOSE DATE CLOSE CLOSE

1976 ...