October 2010
Beginner to intermediate
192 pages
9h 23m
English
Content preview from Commodity Trader's Almanac 2O11
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CRUDE OIL ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN
CRUDE OIL CYCLE, SEASONAL PATTERN, AND TRADING GUIDE
Crude oil has shown strong seasonal bottoms in December and has a strong
tendency to peak in September. One explanation for this is that refiners are
building inventories ahead of the summer driving season and there is still a
demand for heating oil as well as the competition from diesel and jet fuels. As
the summer driving season ends, refiners focus more on increasing inventories
for heating oil, and there is less demand for gasoline, so we have seen price
weakness through the end of December into February.
One of the many aspects that resulted in the unprecedented price increase
in crude oil in 2008 was the insatiable demand from China, India, and other
developing nations. In addition, it is valued in terms of the U.S. dollar, so
when we have periods of a weaker dollar against foreign currencies, this has
helped support the value of crude oil prices, as occurred through late 2007 into
mid-2008.
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
25-Year Pattern
5-Year Pattern
Based on near-term futures contract daily data 1985–2009
CRUDE OIL NEAR-TERM CONTRACT ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, AND CLOSES SINCE 1984
HIGH LOW YEAR HIGH LOW YEAR
YEAR DATE CLOSE DATE CLOSE CLOSE YEAR DATE CLOSE DATE CLOSE CLOSE
1984 05/16 31.22 12/20 26.33 26.41 1998 01/29 17.82 12/10 10.72 12.05
1985 11/25 31.01 12/17
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