Commodity Trader's Almanac 2O11

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STOCKS AND BONDS

S&P’s have shown a tendency to see mid- to end-of-month weakness, espe-

cially after June’s quarterly quadruple witching, as illustrated in our seasonal

chart (page 140). 30-year Treasury bonds prices are weak in June but have a

tendency to recover towards the end of the month from early month losses.

Watch for this mid-month reversal, especially when stocks start to make an

end-of-month selloff. Buy bonds on second trading day and hold for 10 days.

This has a 65.6% win probability with 21 wins in 32 years (page 127). We are

still holding onto our top seasonal long from April until late August (page 42).

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ENERGY

Seasonally, this is still one of the best seven months, March to September, to

be long crude oil. However, June tends to see price consolidations after

major price moves in May (page 145). Natural gas prices tend to move

lower in June until mid-July, when we typically see the market make its

average seasonal low (page 68).

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METALS

Most years gold prices continue in a downtrend, as it is in its seasonally

weak price period until July–August (page 78). Cover short silver position

from May 13 on or about June 24 (page 50). Copper tends to have counter

seasonal rallies in June (page 149).

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GRAINS

Soybeans’ seasonal peak, sell on June 7; hold until end of July (page 54).

Wheat often makes a seasonal low in June. Enter long position around June

8 and exit near November 4 (page ...