December 2005
Beginner
168 pages
4h 18m
English
Content preview from Harvard Business Essentials, Decision Making
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viable product it can launch into the marketplace. They estimate
only a 20 percent chance of this happening.
Now if you multiply the probabilities of these two outcomes,
you will have the overall probability of actually putting a product on
the market:
60% P of prototype success × 20% P of developing
a launchworthy project = 12%
Step 2: Determine Which Uncertainties Could
Have the Greatest Impact
It goes without saying that some uncertainties will have a greater im-
pact on the value of a decision than will others. One uncertainty
might merely reduce your profit margin if the future doesn’t unfold
as anticipated. Another uncertainty, however, might hand ...
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