Summing Up
• When a decision involves a high level of uncertainty, try this
three-step approach: (1) identify the areas of uncertainty, (2) de-
termine which uncertainties could have the greatest impact on
the outcome of your decision, and (3) reduce key uncertainties
to the extent that you have the time and resources to do so.
• As you gather estimates of uncertain future outcomes, avoid
point estimates. These are bound to be wrong. Instead, try to
estimate a range of likely outcomes.
94 Decision Making
Catching the Zeitgeist in Hollywood
Decision makers must rely on their instincts to some extent, and
even more so in the motion picture business. Movie ...