September 2018
Intermediate to advanced
392 pages
10h 16m
English
Content preview from Evidence-Based Management
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Figure 12.1 Probability
Why probability is always conditional
Imagine that someone asks you what the probability is that it will rain tomorrow.3 Your answer to this question would depend on several factors, such as the country you are in, the time of the year and how the weather is today. Your estimate of the probability of rain tomorrow is therefore conditional on the information (evidence) you have available. If you know that you are in the Netherlands during the autumn and that today it is raining heavily, your estimate of the probability will be different from the situation in which you know that it is summer, that ...
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