June 2006
Beginner
793 pages
20h 59m
English
Content preview from Quantitative Techniques: Theory and ProblemsBecome an O’Reilly member and get unlimited access to this title plus top books and audiobooks from O’Reilly and nearly 200 top publishers, thousands of courses curated by job role, 150+ live events each month,
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EXPECTED MONETARY VALUE [EMV]
When there are various alternatives or events that can happen with various probabilities conditional value for each probability has to be obtained either from the past statistics or the subjective estimates of the decision-maker. These assigned probabilities are, then, brought into the analysis. This is accomplished by weighting the conditional value of each event by its probability and summing the products. The resulting number is the EMV for the act. The optimum act is the one with the highest EMV. Thus, EMV for a course of action is the sum of the products obtained by multiplying the payoff for a given outcome by its probability value.
If m1, m2 …, mn are the payoffs corresponding to the states of nature S1, S ...
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