Wiley Handbook of Science and Technology for Homeland Security, 4 Volume Set

RISK ANALYSIS FRAMEWORKS FOR COUNTERTERRORISM*

JAMES SCOURAS

Defense Threat Reduction Agency, Fort Belvoir, Virginia

GREGORY S. PARNELL

Department of Systems Engineering, United States Military Academy, West Point, New York

BILAL M. AYYUB

Center for Technology and Systems Management, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland

ROBERT M. LIEBE

Innovative Decisions Inc., Vienna, Virginia

1 INTRODUCTION

Although there are numerous definitions of risk concepts in use in the risk analysis community, the great majority of these definitions recognize the same common elements. We focus on these essential elements to develop straightforward definitions of risk, risk analysis, risk assessment, risk management, threat, vulnerability, and consequence. To further clarify these terms, we also discuss the relationships among them. We also expand some of the classic questions addressed by risk assessment and risk management to more explicitly address terrorism.

A framework is a conceptual or procedural structure used to address complex issues. A risk framework can facilitate both internal and external risk communication and enable risk analysis involving diverse threats and multiple participants. We analyze a selection of risk frameworks to develop a set of tasks that would be included in a comprehensive framework and against which a particular framework could be evaluated: (i) identify goals and objectives, (ii) define system, (iii) assess ...