Wiley Handbook of Science and Technology for Homeland Security, 4 Volume Set

DETERRENCE: AN EMPIRICAL PSYCHOLOGICAL MODEL

ROBERT W. ANTHONY

Institute for Defense Analyses, Alexandria, Virginia

1 INTRODUCTION

Although deterrence has not led to a strategic victory to date against the entire loosely knit network of cocaine traffickers. However, it has shut down nearly all direct smuggler flights into the United States [1, 2], eliminated Peru as a major cocaine producing country [2, 3], and recently closed down nearly all Caribbean go-fast boat traffic. Section 3 recounts how data obtained from these various success stories facilitated the derivation and calibration of an unexpectedly simple mathematical function representing the psychology of deterrence [1, 3]. It goes on to explain how these tactical victories teach several practical lessons and reveal operational dilemmas. To apply these results to terrorism, Section 4 summarizes an analysis of terrorist preparations for the 9/11 attacks. This analysis suggests that “deterrence” influences decision making for terrorists perpetrating complex plots. The section also explains the methods for estimating the deterrent effect of a mixture of several possible consequences and methods for estimating the deterrence contribution of multilayer defenses. Section 5 introduces several testable hypotheses concerning the generality of these findings and possible explanations for the willingness function. It also emphasizes the importance of interdisciplinary, integrated research to focus all available knowledge on understanding ...