Wiley Handbook of Science and Technology for Homeland Security, 4 Volume Set

MULTI-OBJECTIVE DECISION ANALYSIS

GREGORY S. PARNELL

Department of Systems Engineering, United States Military Academy, West Point, New York Innovative Decisions Inc., Vienna, Virginia

1 INTRODUCTION

Multiobjective decision analysis (MODA) is an appropriate operations research technique to determine the best alternative when we have complex alternatives, multiple conflicting objectives, and significant uncertainties. Other names for this type of technique are multiple attribute utility theory, multiple attribute value theory, multiple attribute preference theory, and multiple criteria decision analysis. Keeney and Raiffa published the seminal book in 1976 [1]. Kirkwood wrote an excellent contemporary textbook [2]. Value-focused thinking (VFT) is a philosophy to guide decision makers to create higher value alternatives [3]. It has three major ideas: start with values, use values to generate better alternatives, and use values to evaluate those alternatives. VFT is usually implemented using the mathematics of MODA. Since MODA requires an understanding of theory and the art of modeling, experienced decision analysts are required to effectively use the technique.

2 TYPES OF DECISION PROBLEMS

A decision is an irrevocable allocation of resources [4]. It is useful to distinguish two types of decision problems: a single decision and a portfolio of decisions. In a single-decision problem, we select the best alternative from a group of potential alternatives. An example is selecting the ...