Wiley Handbook of Science and Technology for Homeland Security, 4 Volume Set

RISK ASSESSMENT AND SAFETY OF THE FOOD SUPPLY

LORNA ZACH AND VICKI BIER

Center for Human Performance and Risk Analysis, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin

1 BACKGROUND

In their seminal paper, Kaplan and Garrick [1] define risk as involving both uncertainty and some kind of loss or damage. Moreover, Zimmerman and Bier [2] state that “Risk assessment is a means to characterize and reduce uncertainty to support our ability to deal with catastrophe through risk management.” Thus, we view risk assessment as “a decision-directed activity, directed toward informing choices and solving problems,” as suggested by the National Research Council [3].

Sometimes, the available choices include waiting for additional information before making a final decision; likewise, effective problem-solving can involve doing additional research to identify the best solution. Therefore, assessing the uncertainties about the results of a risk assessment can be useful in determining whether additional information is needed, and if so, which information would be most helpful in making a good decision. In fact, the American Industrial Health Council and others [4] have stated that a good risk assessment “explicitly and fairly conveys scientific uncertainty, including a discussion of research that might clarify [and reduce] the degree of uncertainty.” Likewise, the National Research Council [5] has recently gone further, recommending that risk assessments should “characterize and communicate uncertainty ...