The Payoff Matrix
The techniques for decisions under uncertainty are all based on a payoff matrix. The payoff matrix is simply a way of showing all the possible outcomes that need to be considered. One axis of the matrix is a list of the mutually exclusive alternatives. This set of alternatives should be built using the techniques in Chapter 9 and should account for dependencies and mutual exclusivities between the proposals as well as resource constraints.
The other axis of the matrix is a list of all the different states of nature that need to be considered. Each state of nature is a future outcome that the decision maker doesn't have any control over. In a custom software contract bid situation, the bidder doesn't have any control over whether ...
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