August 2004
Intermediate to advanced
656 pages
15h 28m
English
The Laplace rule is sometimes called “the principle of insufficient reason”; this rule assumes that each state of nature is equally likely. If you know that the states of nature aren't equally likely and you can assign a probability to each one, you should use expected value analysis as shown in the previous chapter.
Under the Laplace rule, calculate the average payoff for each alternative across all states of nature, as shown in Table 25.3. This is actually the same as using expected value analysis for multiple alternatives; it simply uses equal probabilities for each of the outcomes.
| Average Payoff | |
|---|---|
| A1 | (0 + 4000 + 2500) / 3 = 2167 |
| A2 | (1000 + 500 + 4000) / 3 = 1833 |
| A3 | (–2500 ... |
Read now
Unlock full access