June 2017
Beginner
288 pages
5h 32m
English
Content preview from Little Book of Big Management Theories, The, 2nd Edition
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THEORY 69
TALEB’S BLACK SWAN EVENTS
Use to remind you that anything can happen and you can’t afford to be shocked into inaction by events.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s black swan theory is a metaphor that describes an event so unusual that before it happened it was utterly inconceivable.
FOUR CRITERIA THAT HAVE TO BE MET FOR AN INCIDENT TO BE CONSIDERED A BLACK SWAN EVENT:
The occurrence must be a stunning surprise/shock to the observers, for example the 9/11 attack on the Twin Towers or the Nice lorry outrage.
The event produces a major reaction, for example the attack on the Twin Towers led to the War on Terror.
After the event, people rationalise what has happened and come to believe that it was predicable if only they/others had read the ...
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