Forecasting and Management of Technology, Second Edition

Chapter 3

Managing the Forecasting Project

Chapter Summary: This chapter discusses how to conduct and manage a technology forecasting project. It discusses the need for technology forecasting, approaches to planning a project, methods for organizing the project in teams, and scheduling the project. The chapter concludes with a preview of the chapters to follow.

Managing a forecasting project demands most of the same management qualities required of other projects: sound goals, objectives, and constraints; careful scheduling and cost accounting; and good communication and people skills. However, there are differences as well. These arise from the uncertainty of forecasting and because the people needed for the task may exhibit a wide variety of personal characteristics. For example, some people deal better with the uncertainties of extending existing knowledge than others. Moreover, a forecast often requires individuals from a variety of disciplines (e.g., science, engineering, economics, and social sciences), all with different disciplinary approaches, vocabularies, and perspectives. Clearly, this complicates communication and cooperation. For these reasons and others, forecasting projects may require different organizational and communication structures than other projects.