Forecasting and Management of Technology, Second Edition

8.5 Conclusion

New technologies, even great ones, seldom if ever generate their own growth from inherent technical advantages. Therefore, economic and market analyses are essential in forecasting and managing the future of technologies and the businesses that are built on them. There are both qualitative and quantitative tools to assist in envisioning the technology's future, but they are neither precise in their predictions nor cost free. This chapter has discussed many of these tools, which can be used to help assess the receptiveness of the environment to the unfolding commercialization of a technology.

The most important conclusion of the chapter is that innovation depends on customers, and efforts to project the future of innovations must include understanding those customers and what they will value. While there are qualitative techniques for gathering this information, direct contact with potential customers generally should be part of the investigation. Quantitative techniques also exist and can be useful in predicting what will happen to the technology and its environment. For example, there are S-shaped curve functions that can be used to extrapolate the technology's growth from existing information. Quantitative techniques can also be helpful in forecasting the economic environment. These include standard macroeconomic forecasting and information on direct and indirect effects available from input-output analysis. Although presently they may not be of great utility to ...