Forecasting and Management of Technology, Second Edition

9.5 Impact Analysis

Impact analysis starts where impact identification leaves off. After learning what impacts are likely to occur, the next step is to analyze them to learn what will happen, how significant it will be, and how likely it is to occur. Answering these questions is the purpose of impact analysis. Once again, the TDS provides the major source of information.

When treating impact analysis, it is convenient to separate impacts by area since analytical methods usually are area specific. In this section, nine impact areas are considered: technological; economic; environmental; social; institutional; political; legal and regulatory; behavioral, cultural, and values; and health. This list is not exhaustive, and in a typical forecast not all of these areas will prove worth considering. The impacts could be further sorted by stakeholder group and/or according to whether they are impacts on or of the technology. This section begins with a brief discussion of analyzing impacts on and impacts of the technology. Then each of the nine impact areas is individually treated.

9.5.1 Analyzing Impacts on and Impacts of the Technology

Impacts on the development of a technology often arise both from within the family of technologies being developed and from complementary and competing technologies. Technological barriers and facilitators from within the family can alter the type and rate of technological development. The cost and availability of complementary technologies needed to build ...