Forecasting and Management of Technology, Second Edition

Table of Contents

Title Page

Copyright

Dedication

Acknowledgments

Chapter 1: Introduction

1.1 About This Book

1.2 Technology and Society

1.3 Management and the Future

1.4 Conclusions

References

Chapter 2: Technology Forecasting

2.1 What Is Technology Forecasting?

2.2 Methodological Foundations

2.3 Technology Forecasting Methods

2.4 Conclusion

References

Chapter 3: Managing the Forecasting Project

3.1 Information Needs of the Forecasting Project

3.2 Planning the Technology Forecast

3.3 Team Organization, Management, and Communications

3.4 Success: The Right Information at the Right Time

3.5 Project Scheduling

3.6 Conclusions

References

Chapter 4: Exploring

4.1 Establishing the Context—the TDS

4.2 Monitoring

4.3 The Stimulation of Creativity

4.4 Conclusion

References

Chapter 5: Gathering and Using Information

5.1 Expert Opinion

5.2 Gathering Information on the Internet

5.3 Structuring the Search

5.4 Preparing Search Results

5.5 Using Search Results

5.6 Developing Science, Technology, and Social Indicators

5.7 Communicating Search Results

5.8 Conclusions

References

Chapter 6: Analyzing Phase

6.1 Perspective on Data and Methods

6.2 Linear Regression and Extensions

6.3 Growth Models

6.4 Simulation

6.5 Monte Carlo Simulation

6.6 System Dynamics

6.7 Gaming

6.8 Software Suggestions

References

Chapter 7: Focusing Phase: Using Scenario Analysis

7.1 Uncertainty

7.2 Scenarios

7.3 Examples ...