Forecasting and Management of Technology, Second Edition

11.1 Forecasting Continues

Forecasting activities do not end with the start of the implementation phase. If the technology continues to interest the organization, then monitoring (Section 4.2) should continue, even if only at a low level to pick up new developments that may affect the technology (Rossini, Porter, et al. 1976). It is important to follow up “game-changing” information, do additional forecasting if necessary, and factor the results into the implementation process. Significant new developments may require an expanded forecasting effort. This might be viewed as a feedback loop to some phase of the completed forecast. The message is clear: Never cease learning about the technology as implementation proceeds.

With new information in hand, the forecaster can ask: “How does this alter the forecast and the implementation plan?” Typically, significant new information may support the development of the technology, inhibit it, or present serious alternatives to it. What is learned by analyzing the new information must be used to modify forecast conclusions. The practical outcome is that the implementation plan can be altered to account for new circumstances. Without an ongoing forecasting effort, this cannot be accomplished.