Forecasting and Management of Technology, Second Edition

12.3 Alternative Perspectives

This section discusses temporal perspectives on the decisions and actions undertaken in the present to facilitate technology development. To make intelligent decisions, managers must interpret situations in light of the information that they consider important. Their temporal perspective—past, present, or future—colors the information they select. While all three perspectives are important, inappropriate reliance on any of them can lead to trouble.

Looking Back from the Present: The most common temporal perspective is to interpret the future in light of past experience. This tends to lock the decision maker into the framework of past organizational goals, strategies, and experiences. Its view of the future emphasizes continuity as an extrapolation of that past. “The future will be just like the past except more so.” But sometimes it isn't, and when it isn't, the impacts can be devastating.

Focusing on the Present: The “now” orientation stresses immediate solutions to pressing problems. However, rewards based on current and near-term profit and loss discourage a long-term perspective. American management, including R&D, has come under fire for focusing on short-term payoffs within annual budgeting cycles. Obsession with today's problems and opportunities can blind one to tomorrow's problems and opportunities.

A Futures Perspective: Obviously, this book advocates a futures perspective. However, no competent decision maker can ignore the past or the present ...