Forecasting and Management of Technology, Second Edition
by Thomas W. Mason, Alan Thomas Roper, Alan L. Porter, Jerry Banks, Scott W. Cunningham, Frederick A. Rossini
5.8 Conclusions
This chapter discussed gathering data from experts and various techniques for doing so. Special attention also was devoted to the collection of information from the Internet. The need to evaluate both technical and social sources of information in order to assemble a complete picture of possible future developments was emphasized. Thus, both technical and societal database sources were considered, and the “best of the best” were nominated in each area.
The search strategy and framing of the search query were considered, and preparing, using, and communicating the results were discussed. Exploiting the information obtained requires the careful design of indicators, scales of measurement, and the fusion of various kinds of data. The concepts and construction of science, technology, and social indicators were introduced. The next chapter advances the discussion further by closely examining the role of analytical models and trend extrapolation in technology forecasting.
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