Forecasting and Management of Technology, Second Edition

7.4 Scenarios: Extensions and Advanced Techniques

This section builds upon the previous discussion of scenario analysis by discussing extensions and advanced techniques. The first subsection discusses how to use scenarios as part of a larger technology forecasting study. Scenario analysis fits well with simulation, modeling, and expert opinion approaches. Next, two related techniques in the broader family of scenario-based forecasting tools are considered. The first, backcasting, involves an iterative approach of discussing futures and strategies with decision makers. The second creates more richly structured scenarios by examining possible paths or transitions between future scenarios.

7.4.1 Scenarios in Multimethodology Forecasts

Scenarios analysis can be applied alone or in combination with other technology forecasting approaches. Much of the value of scenarios is realized when they are employed with other techniques. This subsection examines how scenarios can be used to enhance other techniques. The first case explores the benefits of scenarios with simulation and modeling. The second considers the use of scenario analysis in concert with expert opinion techniques.

Multimethodologies Involving Simulation and Modeling

Scenarios, simulation, and modeling make a fruitful combination for a number of reasons. Many simulation and modeling techniques require precise estimates of parameters and exact specifications of system structure. Such precision may not be consistent with the ...